Charged with the same mission—to improve public safety—Californian political leaders, advocacy organizations, and even distraught Nextdoor users are divided on an upcoming policy approach aimed to solve it.
On this year’s Election Day, California voters will have a hot button state proposition on their ballots: Proposition 36. If approved, the proposal would invoke the three strikes rule for petty crime in California—defined as $950 or less of stolen goods or drugs—and make a third misdemeanor a chargeable felony. There would be significantly more Californians incarcerated in state extended-stay prisons. Prop. 36 also offers a new treatment-mandated felony option for drug dealers.
Older voters may feel déjà vu while voting this year; the proposed measure is an antithesis to the decade-old Proposition 47, which significantly reduced the severity of crime response in California. While Prop. 47 was successful in its goal of reducing mass incarceration, decreasing prison costs, and decreasing drug offenses, proponents of Prop. 36 say that it has caused homelessness, drug trafficking, and theft to skyrocket.
The state of California had the highest shoplifting rates in 2023 than in any year since 2000. Moreover, San Mateo County is one of four California counties that account for over 90% of the statewide rise in retail theft since 2019, according to the Public Policy Institute of California. The county alone saw a 41% increase in retail theft incidents, or commercial burglary and shoplifting.
In an exclusive interview, Redwood City mayor Jeff Gee pointed to the theft that has become commonplace at Sequoia Station, a shopping center that includes a Safeway, CVS, and other small shops. While meeting with constituents about public safety, he has encountered parents who fear the danger shoplifters may pose to their children.
“People just don’t feel safe in our city going to the grocery store,” Gee said. “You should feel safe.”
Beyond theft, proponents of Prop. 36 say that the measure would curb the fentanyl crisis. By imposing harsher penalties on fentanyl dealers—including murder charges in the case that they repeatedly sell illegal drugs and their drugs kill someone—they believe they will hold drug traffickers accountable for damage in communities.
One of Prop. 36’s proponents is Matt Capelouto, whose daughter Alexandra died of fentanyl poisoning in 2019. Capelouto began his organization Stop Drug Homicide to advocate for better accountability for drug dealers, and they are currently rallying behind Prop. 36 because it includes Alexandra’s Law. The law would require the court to read an advisory statement about the dangers of drugs to dealers being charged for the first time.
“I see it being equally preventative as punitive because the goal is to make that person think twice about being involved in the drug trade knowing that they can face a murder charge,” Capelouto said in an exclusive interview. “It’s only if they disregard that warning, and somebody dies as a result of their continued actions that they can be held with murder or or charged with murder.”
Prop. 36 will also impose a brand-new treatment-mandated felony system, in which drug addicts and users are able to plead guilty to their crimes and receive alternative forms of punishment.
“Under the current system, things have gotten far worse because there’s nothing to get [drug addicts] the help they need,” Capelouto said.
In an op-ed published in The Voice of San Francisco, activism coalition Moms Against Drugs Addiction and Deaths voiced their support for how Prop. 36 strikes a balance between compassion and accountability.
“It offers hope for those trapped in the cycle of addiction while providing a balanced approach to public safety,” they wrote. “[Prop. 36] could mean the difference between life and death, providing essential support even when they’re unable to seek it themselves.”
However, opponents of Prop. 36 worry that taking steps to revert back to California’s tough-on-crime stance is the wrong move.
Johanna Rasmussen, Chair of the Juvenile Justice & Delinquency Prevention Commission in San Mateo County, is especially concerned about the potential harm Prop. 36 may have on disadvantaged youth around the Bay Area.
In Rasmussen’s job, she has worked with many youth who have committed acts of “survival stealing,” where impoverished or homeless youth are forced to steal basic necessities like soap or toothpaste. She emphasized that they are stealing out of necessity rather than desire.
“They don’t have anybody,” she said in an exclusive interview. “I’ve had one of the kids tell me, ‘Ms. Johanna, I don’t want to rob people. I don’t want to hurt people, but I’m hungry. How am I going to get food?’”
Rasmussen acknowledges a spike in larger organized theft, in which thieves may steal a whole shelf from a store like Walgreens, then resell their goods. However, from her work, she has learned that the ringleaders of organized retail theft are primarily adults who employ vulnerable youth living in extreme poverty, the Child Protective Services (CPS) system, or homelessness.
Rasmussen also pointed to studies that indicate that theft spiked not after Prop. 47’s implementation—but the pandemic, which drove a 28% spike in shoplifting. Given the context of heightened poverty post-pandemic, Rasmussen cautions Prop. 36 voters against misplaced blame.
“When we want to get tough on crime, do we really want to get tough on vulnerable children? Kids who don’t have parents?” Rasmussen said. “It’s a systematic failure somewhere else. Prop 36 isn’t going to suddenly give them parents. It isn’t suddenly going to fix their financial situation.”
She also warns against the popular notion that shoplifters aren’t being prosecuted. Recently, Rasmussen met two 15 year old men with cognitive disabilities. They were parentless, in the CPS system, and went into Walgreens to steal personal hygiene items. Later, the district attorney charged them with conspiracy to commit commercial burglary, a federal crime and what Rasmussen called “an excessive charge” for teenagers.
These teenagers were not just vulnerable because of their age, but their race; while Black and Hispanic youth account for 78% of San Mateo County’s Juvenile Hall population, only 39.4% of all San Mateo County students are Black or Hispanic.
Tina Doede, president of the League of Women Voters (LWV) North and Central San Mateo County chapter, concurred in an exclusive interview that disproportionate incarceration rates for people of color is “not really acceptable.” LWV is a national collective known for its detailed investigations before releasing formal voting recommendations and has publicly opposed Prop. 36.
Their opposition to Prop. 36 is in part because of its potential to raise costs for taxpayers without significantly improving public safety. Incarceration is extremely expensive; according to the California Legislature, it costs about $106,000 annually to incarcerate an inmate in a California prison.
Capelouto, while acknowledging the steep price of incarceration, provided a preemptive rebuttal. “To those worried about the price, I say: how dare they put a value on the lives of those who have been killed by fentanyl?” he asked. “How much money are we losing because they will never contribute to our economy—ever?”
Doede also independently questions the opportunity cost Prop. 36 would impose on shoplifters, whom she does not consider a significant threat to public safety.
“It’s a huge waste of human potential. That person would potentially be able to come out and contribute to society,” Doede said.
Bay Area community members are divided on Prop. 36., in which every Nextdoor post about personal experience with car break-ins or Amazon package theft incites a back-and-forth chain of debate between users.
While Mayor Gee is supportive of Prop. 36, he encourages all community members to “do their homework” before Election Day and to consider future generations as he often does as a community leader.
“I’m not worried only about 2024. I’m worried about 2034, 2054, 2064,” he said. “I always try to figure out what the impacts may be years from now, and I try to find the balance point.”
